Recently, I have received several emails asking what's my take on Chinese Equities. To be dastardly honest, I do not know as I am not vested in any Chinese Equities; I am not sure if any of the brokerages offer Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchange trading services..
But I must say I taken (by surprise) the huge gain made by the Chinese stock market, the SSE rose from a low of 2000 last year to 5023 as of now. I understand the SSE has been rather volatile of late, moving down and up for a total range of few hundred points?
Many commentators, most famous being Bill Gross, have called for a short of SSE. Some Chinese brokers have restricted access to some stocks by forcing punters to pay cash up front. Of late, my retailers have been asking "how to gain access to SSE?", "how to ride the exuberant SSE", "I want a share of SSE gain" etc.. I strongly urge these people to think twice or thrice as the stock market top or any top of any stock is often marked by extreme volatility (remember ABL?), do not get caught with your pants down and dont try to board the train now (as I foresee that the top is near)
I may be wrong as I am personally not vested (long or short), and never have been vested in Chinese equities, minus local S-chips, so I might have to eat my words but please do exercise caution. I hope that all my readers and people who emailed me would exercise their sound judgement and stay safe. All the best! Disclaimer applies.. Huat ah!
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Let me first start off by wishing all my readers a happy, healthy and prosperous new year!
May the stock market yield healthy returns in 2015! HUAT AH!
For the year 2014, the local stock market ended the year at 3365.15, representing a gain of more than 6% for the entire year. I believe that many people would have made money in the stock market this year, correct or not? Marketwatch.com reported that Dow Jones have had a six-straight year of gain! (wow!) For 2014, Dow Jones rose 7.5%, S&P rose 11.4%... Most other world markets (except the oil export-dependent countries like Russia) did well too. Given that most stock markets worldwide performed credibly, I would be cautiously optimistic about the performance of the equity markets this year..
So now for the million-dollar question... Some of my readers have asked me for opinion on how the stock market will perform in 2015? To be very honest, I don't really know! (I am no fortune-teller haah). As mentioned previously, I am cautiously optimistic for 2015 (think contrarian) and I think that this year the local stock market will be volatile and probably eke out a small gain for 2015? Oil prices have fallen by a lot and in the last financial crisis, oil price tumbled by a great deal too, so does the huge fall in oil prices represent a bearish omen? probably... I am a "reactionary" stock market player, so I adapt my positions accordingly so I am able to huat whichever direction the stock market turns!
Some of my readers may be curious how I fared in 2014... Last year was financially rewarding for me. My portfolio grew 53.73% (my personal record! yeah!) As my loyal readers would know, 2015 would be the sixth year of my investment journey (I started in mid 2010). I sure hope that 2015 would be equally or even more financially rewarding, (and that 2014 was not a one-off, fingers crossed)
To my loyal readers, I know I am probably one of the most infrequent financial blogger and haven't been blogging much in 2014... (I'm sorry, have been busy with uni and my other pursuits) I would try to blog more (I'll try, cant promise as uni is getting busier by the year) but hey my blog post have been useful, haven't they? The last post indicating a symmetrical triangle breakdown in viking precipitated a breakdown in oil and oil related stocks..(hope you guys got the hint and stayed out of oil and oil-related counters)
And finally, to conclude, Happy new year! HUAT AH! :)
Posted by ming at 1:40 PM